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After how many years will El Nino come?

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El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities Based on Oceanic Ni ño Index (ONI) Jan Null, CCM Updated thru May 2018 : The Oceanic Ni ñ o Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Ni ñ o (warm) and La Ni ña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. read more

Scientists at The Earth Institute of Columbia University, having analyzed data from 1950 to 2004, suggest ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, with the risk of annual civil conflict doubling from 3% to 6% in countries affected by ENSO during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. read more

In general, El Niño events tend to only last for a single cycle (i.e. one year from autumn to autumn), but it is not uncommon for multi-year La Niña events to occur. For example, the 1998–2001 La Niña affected three consecutive years from autumn 1998 to autumn 2001. read more