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How is the probability of precipitation calculated?

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Explaining "Probability of Precipitation". Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service routinely include a "PoP" (probability of precipitation) statement, which is often expressed as the "chance of rain" or "chance of precipitation". EXAMPLE. read more

A probability of precipitation (POP), (also expressed as: "chance of precipitation," "chance of rain") is a description of the likelihood of precipitation that is often published with weather forecasts. Generally it refers to the probability that at least some minimum quantity of precipitation will occur within a specified forecast period and location. read more

If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. read more

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