What is the probability of nuclear war in the next 50 years?

One side of the conflict cannot destroy a sufficient number of opponent's nuclear weapons in order to make a retaliatory strike acceptable. Deterrence requires the possibility of causing unacceptable damage to the opponent, which is achieved by the ability of a retaliatory nuclear strike. read more

50 years is quite a long time, so it might well happen within that period. We’ve not had nuclear weapons used in anger for nearly 73 years & we might go on another 50 years without it. read more

Having gotten the units right, we might argue whether the probability of nuclear war per year was high or low. But it would make no real difference. If the probability is 10 percent per year, then we expect the holocaust to come in about 10 years. If it is 1 percent per year, then we expect it in about 100 years. read more

The best weapon we have is not in fact a nuclear warhead. The best weapon we have is the THREAT that we may or may not one day use them. This will stop some of the stronger countries from trying anything bold due to fear of being nuked. read more