What's the probability of nuclear war by 2020?

As the scandal of Russian interference with the U.S. presidential election continues to deepen into a category 5 $hit storm, I'd be more worried than I was during any year of the Obama administration. read more

A nuclear exchange between any of the nuclear powers is nearly unthinkable. a rogue actor would not trigger a nuclear war since the nuclear powers would quickly realize that no other power would act that way. read more

Our PS21 panel, incidentally, estimated a 21 percent chance NATO and Russia would fight at least a limited conventional war in the next 20 years, with a 4 percent chance it might go nuclear. So again, it's probably fine. read more

Putting the figures slightly differently, in the 14 years of the 21st century so far, the average number of war deaths has been 55,000, though there is always controversy about precisely how many people died in Iraq after the British and American invasion. read more